Analyst predictions

See also: Rumors

Analyst predictions and forecasts for the Seventh generation of video games which includes the Wii, Xbox 360, Playstation 3, Playstation Portable, and Nintendo DS.

IDC:PS3 outsells Wii in 2012 in NPD Console sales (May 2008)

See Graphs at bottom of page.

2010

See also: Eighth generation of video games

• Wii Cycle to 'Fade Meaningfully' in 2010, Aggressive Price Cuts Needed (February 2010)

We believe Nintendo needs to cut the price of their console from $200 to $150 immediately, as they should establish as meaningful of an installed base as possible before the Natal and Arc are introduced.

• PS3 To Outsell Rival Consoles, Push 127M Units

It expects that PS3's global lifetime sales will reach 127 million, compared to its prediction of 103 million Wii units. Wii sales are now falling, particularly in mature markets, and its installed base will peak in 2011. Ownership of both the PS3 and the Xbox 360 will hit their highest points between 2012 and 2014

2009

See also: Eighth generation of video games

• Iwata: DS install base could reach 152.2 million (January 2009)
• Cowen and Company: Analyst Clips PS3 Sales Estimates (January 20, 2009)

2009: PS3 (4m), X360 (4.25), Wii (8m)
2010: PS3 (4.5m), X360 (4m), Wii (6m)

• Feature: Can PS3 Catch Up to Xbox 360? (January 16, 2009)
• Wii to topple PS2 from console throne (January 20, 2009)

By 2014 Venture Beat predicts that Wii will have sold 154m units globally. it also predicts that PS3 is destined to finish third in the current next-gen race.

• Sony: There's no way Xbox 360 will win in the end (January 20, 2009)

Sony is confident the PlayStation 3 will ultimately sell more consoles than the Xbox 360, slamming Microsoft for making consoles that only last in the market for four or five years, while Sony's stay strong for ten years.

• iSuppli: Handhelds rise to 63.5 million by 2013, no new handhelds until at least 2011[3] (May 2009)
• Analyst Pachter Expects Wii Price Cut This Year (June 2009)
• Full-game downloads to account for 50% of console sales by 2019, says Pachter (June 2009)

2008

• Report: Wii HD "Set for 2011" (October 1, 2008)
• Analysis: Trends in the Japanese Game Market (September 30, 2008)

the PSP will see a resurgence and end up selling over 70 million units worldwide by 2012. DFC Intelligence forecasts that the Wii will end up outselling the PlayStation 3 by a ratio of 2 to 1

• Peter Moore: ‘Wii will own half of all next gen-sales' (July 2008)
• Reeves: PS3 will beat PS2's lifetime sales
• Analyst: $57B Game Market in 2009

"The Wii does not appear to be a fad and it has the chance to be one of the best selling systems of all-time. global videogame and interactive entertainment market will hit $57 billion in 2009

• Kim "confident" 360 will last 7 years (May 2008)
• Enterbrain: Game Sales to Peak in 2008 $7B in 2008 to $6.4B in 2010
• DFC: PS3 to Overtake 360 worldwide in 2009

By 2011, more than 180 million consoles sold. PS3 to surpass 360 in 2009. Software sales for the PlayStation 3 will surpass software sales for the Wii in 2012 when software sales are already on the decline.

• The state of the next-gen video game console (May 2008)

Pidgeon suggested that by 2012, the PS3 will lead the pack, with more than 107 million units sold worldwide, while the Wii will be just behind, at nearly 107 million units.

• Taiwan Economic News: "Xbox 540" in Fall 2009
• Game Informer: Next systems - Nintendo, Microsoft in 2010, Sony in 2012 (more speculation than predictions or analysis)
• DFC: Europe Wii sales will out pace both the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3

DFC Intelligence now forecasts that (in Europe), over the next five years, sales of the Wii will out pace both the Xbox 360 and the PlayStation 3.

• Ubisoft: Wii To Rule Them All, Microsoft/Sony Battle Split In U.S/Europe
• Lazard Capital: U.S. 2008 forecasts increase

Raised 2008 US Wii sales estimates from 6.5 million to 8.5 million units, and PS3 sales from 4.5 million to 4.7 million and boosted 2008 DS estimates from 5.9 million to 6.4 million and PS2 from 2.5 million to 3 million. He reiterated his Xbox 360 sales forecast of 4.8 million during the year and PSP sales of 3.8 million.

• IDG Research sales forecast: 2008 & 2009 (April 2008)
• Enterbrain: New DS at E3 2008
• Analysts estimate 26m Wii, 550 billion Yen operating profit for Nintendo this fiscal year
• Pachter: 16.3 million PS3s and 21.3 million 360s in US and Europe by year-end
• Pachter gives global 2008 hardware sales forecast
• iSuppli: PS3 to Eek Out Console War Victory by 2011

2007

Screen Digest forecast made in Dec. 2007

• Pachter: PS3 to 'Win' Console War Because of Blu-ray
• Enterbrain Prez Predicts Thirty Million DS Systems in Japan
• Next Generation Consoles Games publishing, hardware analysis and forecasts to 2010 (PDF sample - requesting full document)
• Screen Digest:By 2011 the PS3 will have caught up with the Wii
• Screen Digest: DS to have 89% Japanese install base by 2011, 112 million worldwide
• New $99 PS2 in early 2008
• Screen Digest: PS3 To Lead Through 2010, Wii 'Great Unknown'
• SFG Research: Hardware Market Shares Thru' 2010 (January 2007)

In 2010 worldwide: PS3 - 62m, X360 - 46m, Wii - 25m

• 10 Reasons Why PS3 Will Win This Console Generation

Home & Little Big Planet, Free Online, 50 GB games, Casino Royale, HDMI, Standard HDD, The Wii Fad Will Fade, Major CPU Advantage, PS2 still outselling 360, Something For Everyone

2006

• Enterbrain: PS3 will lead Wii by Q4 2007 [4]
• Strategy Analytics: PlayStation 3 predicted to sell 121.8 million

The report predicts that Sony will sell 121.8 million PS3s worldwide through 2012. Sales of Xbox 360s are expected to reach 58.8 million and of Nintendo's Revolution nearly 23 million. Cumulative retail revenues for all consoles over this period will exceed $47bn.

• Merrill Lynch 2011 forecast: Xbox 360 and PS3 win, Wii loses

Worldwide: Xbox 360: 39%; PS3: 34%; Wii: 27%;

• Merrill Lynch Estimates Huge PS3 Losses
• Opinion: Why Sony Won't Lose the Next-Gen War
• IDG: Xbox 360 To Keep U.S. Lead Through 2009 more (June 2006) (updated October 2006)

Total Through 2008 (US) 360 - 15.5 million & PS3 - 13.5 million & Wii - 6.8 million & 17.6 million for PSP, and 20 million for DS

• Enterbrain:Nintendo could beat Sony in console race in Japan

there will be big sales for the Wii from the very beginning. I feel this growth will slow a little from the third year, but altogether the sales will exceed 10 million units. He expects the PS3 to rack up total sales of between 9 and 10 million consoles by 2010 and the Xbox 360 to lag behind with 1 to 2 million.

• DFC:Opinion: Could Sony Go From First to Worst?

...distinct possibility the PlayStation 3 could end up third in market share behind both the Xbox 360 and Nintendo Wii. The big problem with the PlayStation 3 is price... 1) Sony's hands may be tied in regard to price cuts and 2) Sony drastically underestimated the competition

• Citigroup:Console expectations

Xbox 360 will hold its lead and edge out the PlayStation 3 in the U.S. selling an estimated 8 million units in 2008 compared with 7.1 million PlayStation 3s in that year (for a grand total of 19.8 million since launch vs. 11 million, respectively). Nintendo to have sold 3.9 million Revolution systems by 2008.

• In Stat:Sony to Lead Game Consoles Through 2010

Through 2010, the Sony PS3 will account for just over 50% of the installed base of next-generation consoles, while the Microsoft Xbox 360 will have 28.6%, and the Nintendo Revolution will have 21.2%, the high-tech market research firm says.

• Nomura Securities:PS3 will outsell Wii by 60%

PS3 will sell 71 million units by 2011 compared with an estimated 40 million units for Wii.

• Why Wii Won Sean Malstrom (Nov 2006)

2005

• Pachter: Microsoft at 30-35 percent, Sony at 45-55 percent, and Nintendo at what's left - link 2

In 2010, Sony's going to have 55 per cent, Microsoft's going to have 35 per cent and Nintendo 10 per cent

• Piper Jaffray:US HW Sales estimates thru 2008 (New PSP model, 360 to lead) [5]
• Sony will garner 45%-50% hardware share, Microsoft will take 35%-40% hardware share and Nintendo will maintain 15% of the console hardware market in the U.S. Revolution~ 5.5 million, PlayStation 3~ 15.5 million, Xbox 360~ 19.6 million, Game Boy (line)~ 24 million

HW Units in Millions     2005   2006    2007    2008
PS3                           0      1       6     8.5
XBX 360                     1.1      6     6.5       6
REVOLUTION                    0    0.5       2       3

• Strategy Analytics:PlayStation 3 will destroy Xbox 360 and Wii

PS3 surpassing Microsoft’s market lead at the end of 2007 and rising to almost 60% market share by 2012. Ending 2012, PS3 - 121.8 million unit sales, xbox360 - 59.7 million sales, Wii will continue Nintendo’s downward home console spiral with a miserable 23.3 million units.

• The Outsider's View by Russell Carroll - Revolutionary?

I think that there is a good chance that Nintendo will pull this off and may even end up as the best selling console of this next generation. The Revolution's success will likely mirror how the DS has succeeded in the market. Good games will determine success.

• Microsoft hopes for 10 million Xbox 360 sales in first 16 months (June 2005)

We believe Sony PS3 will be the strongest seller of next-generation video game consoles. However, Microsoft's Xbox 360 will narrow the gap with Sony to come within 28 per cent of the PS3 installed base -- selling almost twice as many next-gen consoles as Nintendo Revolution by 2010.

2004

• American Technology Research: Xbox for $99? Xbox 2 in 2005?

2002

• Nintendo Sees 50 Million GameCube Sales by 2005 [6]

Graphs

See also: [[::Category:Charts|:Category:Charts]]

IDG: PS3, 360, Wii (Oct 2006) The earliest prediction

iSuppli: PS3, Wii, X360 (Feb 2008)

iSuppli: February 2008 forecast

IDC:PS3, Wii, 360 (May 2008)[1]

ScreenDigest: Wii, PS3, 360 (Dec 2007)

7th generation software sales (November 2006)

Making graphs is fun (NeoGAF)

Screen Digest - market share for 2010[2]

External links

• Market Analysts Console Sales Predictions
• JJSWiki - Analyst predictions (from NeoGAFer